The increase in the USD/MAD pair is primarily attributed to a negative basket effect of -0.27%. This indicates the appreciation of certain components of the basket against the US dollar, alongside a weak market effect of -0.06%. This suggests a relative improvement in liquidity within the domestic market, as noted by BKGR in its recent publication "Fx Monthly."
Conversely, the EUR/MAD pair experienced a slight decline of 0.13%. This was due to a positive basket effect of +0.16%, reflecting the euro's stability within the basket, while the market effect remained marginally negative at -0.06%.
Overall, the dirham has operated in a relatively neutral configuration, with limited fluctuations between its two main anchor currencies. This stability reflects the robustness of external fundamentals, including sustained remittance transfers, stable export revenues, and cautious positioning by operators, despite a rather volatile international environment.
Looking ahead, with an anticipated increase in the EUR/USD parity to 1.18 and a rise in liquidity spreads, the target levels for the EUR/MAD and USD/MAD pairs are projected to be 10.95 and 9.28, respectively, by the end of the first quarter of 2026.
In a six-month outlook, with a forecast of EUR/USD at 1.2 and an expected decrease in liquidity spreads, the projections for the EUR/MAD and USD/MAD pairs would be 10.78 and 9.14, respectively.
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