Systemic Risks: Financial Sector Regulators Review and Validate a New Roadmap

The Committee for Coordination and Monitoring of Systemic Risks (CCSRS) convened on December 23, 2025, at the headquarters of Bank Al-Maghrib in Rabat. Following a review of the previous financial stability roadmap, the Committee examined and validated a new roadmap designed to consolidate achievements and enhance the national financial stability framework. The Committee also reviewed the mapping of systemic risks and assessed the results from its monthly subcommittee, which provides a holistic analysis of the financial system's situation and observed and expected macroeconomic trends. Key observations included: - Although the global economy demonstrated relative resilience in the first half of 2025, supported by temporary anticipation of tariff increases, it is expected to continue slowing in 2026, with improvement only anticipated in 2027. This outlook remains fraught with significant uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. tariff policy and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Despite this international context, national economic growth is projected to accelerate from 3.8% in 2024 to 5% in 2025, stabilizing at an average of 4.5% over 2026-2027, driven by investment dynamics. - Inflation, which averaged 0.8% over the first eleven months of 2025, is expected to rise to 1.3% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. The current account deficit is projected to remain contained at 1.8% of GDP in 2025, staying below 2% for the next two years. Meanwhile, official reserve assets are expected to strengthen further in the short term, providing coverage for approximately five and a half months of imports of goods and services. - In terms of public finances, the budget deficit is expected to continue its reduction, decreasing from 3.8% of GDP in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, and further to 3% during 2026-2028. Consequently, the Treasury debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to gradually decline from 67.7% in 2024 to 67.4% in 2025, 65.9% in 2026, 64.9% in 2027, and 64% in 2028. - On the monetary front, the demand for bank liquidity is anticipated to increase, rising from 132.1 billion dirhams in 2025 to 146.8 billion in 2026 and 158 billion in 2027, largely due to expected growth in currency circulation. Despite these conditions, credit to the non-financial sector is expected to accelerate to 4.1% in 2025 and average 5% over the projection horizon. The non-performing loan ratio remains relatively high at 8.4% in 2024 and 8.7% at the end of September 2025, with a slightly improved provisioning rate of 69%. - The banking sector has confirmed the strengthening of its financial fundamentals, showing sustained profitability and good capital adequacy. By the end of June 2025, the sector's net income, based on social data, continued to grow by 25%, driven by market and intermediation activities. This performance has further solidified the sector's solvency, with an average Tier 1 capital ratio of 13.8% and a total capital ratio of 16.4%, exceeding the regulatory minimums of 9% and 12%. On a consolidated basis, these ratios stood at 12.3% and 14.3% at the end of the first half of 2025. Macroeconomic stress tests conducted by Bank Al-Maghrib confirm the sector's resilience to shocks while meeting prudential requirements. The short-term liquidity ratio remains above the regulatory threshold. - Regarding Financial Market Infrastructures, monitoring and evaluation results confirm their strong resilience both financially and operationally, indicating a low risk level for financial stability. - The insurance sector has also continued to show solid fundamentals. By the end of October, premiums issued reached 53.6 billion dirhams, an increase of 8.1% compared to the same period in 2024. This growth was observed in both the non-life (+7.9%) and life (+8.3%) segments. - Financially, the sector's investment portfolio appreciated by 5%, reaching 257.9 billion dirhams. Meanwhile, unrealized gains recorded an exceptional increase of 71.6% compared to the end of 2024, totaling 63.6 billion dirhams, benefiting from favorable stock market dynamics and declining rates. - The net result improved by 13.4% year-on-year, driven by strong financial performance. In terms of solvency, the insurance sector continues to maintain an average margin well above the regulatory minimum under the current prudential framework. - On the Casablanca stock exchange, the MASI index and market capitalization continued their upward trend. As of December 22, 2025, the MASI showed an annual increase of 28.2%, while market capitalization rose by 38% to reach 1,039.7 billion dirhams. At the same time, market volatility recorded a slight deceleration in the second half of 2025, averaging 14.63%, down from 15.43% in the first half. The liquidity ratio of the stock market continued its upward trend initiated in 2023, reaching 15.45% by the end of November 2025, compared to 12.45% at the end of 2024 and 8.88% at the end of 2023. - In the bond market, the downward trend in rates generally persisted in 2025, although a tightening was observed in the last quarter of the year. Treasury bill issuances amounted to 154.6 billion dirhams by the end of November 2025, down from 180 billion dirhams during the same period in 2024. The outstanding amount of Treasury bills reached 794.3 billion dirhams by the end of November 2025. Concurrently, in the private debt market, issuances reached 100.3 billion dirhams, compared to 84.3 billion dirhams a year earlier, bringing the total outstanding to 296.7 billion dirhams, an increase of 6.7%. - As of December 5, 2025, the total net assets of mutual funds stood at 803.74 billion dirhams, reflecting a 23% increase since the beginning of the year. This growth was driven by net subscriptions from investors, totaling 105.11 billion dirhams, and strong performances from equity and diversified mutual funds, linked to favorable stock market dynamics. Data as of the end of September indicates a stabilization of net assets for real estate investment funds around 109 billion dirhams, alongside sustained growth in the outstanding amounts of private equity funds and venture capital funds, reaching 4.8 billion and 28.9 billion dirhams, respectively, up 52.8% and 66.2%. - Regarding the investor base in the capital market, the renewed interest from individual investors observed in the previous semester has been confirmed, particularly in the stock market, as evidenced by the increase in the number of subscribers during recent IPOs. Additionally, the number of securities accounts and mutual fund shareholders continued to grow, recording annual increases of 29% and 21%, primarily driven by resident individuals. Finally, the Committee was informed of a high-level meeting held on November 27 in Rabat between GAFIMOAN officials and Moroccan authorities, marking the official launch of the mutual evaluation process of the national AML-CFT framework, scheduled to commence in November 2026 as part of the third cycle of this exercise. This meeting also reaffirmed Morocco's political commitment to a coordinated mobilization of all national stakeholders to ensure the smooth conduct and success of this evaluation. In this context, the Committee acknowledged the progress made in implementing the financial sector roadmap, developed in line with the national AML-CFT strategy led by ANRF, in anticipation of this evaluation.