Overview of the Moroccan Real Estate Landscape
Between 2010 and 2024, Morocco's real estate production was predominantly driven by social housing, which accounted for nearly 47% of completed units. Despite these efforts, analysts note that a significant housing deficit persists as of 2024, with an increase in secondary and vacant urban housing.
In response to these challenges, the government has refocused its efforts on two key initiatives: the 'Cities Without Slums' program, aimed at eradicating substandard housing by 2030, and the 'Daâm Sakane' plan, which provides direct support to housing demand.
These initiatives are expected to stimulate a new production cycle of over one million housing units from 2024 to 2030, within a market estimated at nearly 550 billion dirhams. This context has contributed to the recent recovery in listed real estate values.
Market Dynamics and Growth Potential
According to Saham Bank, the real estate sector is currently benefiting from a favorable economic alignment, characterized by an economic recovery, accelerated government programs, and a gradual restructuring of developers following the contraction phase from 2014 to 2020.
The cumulative production from 2024 to 2030 is projected to exceed one million units, primarily driven by the mid-range segment, which has become central to public housing policy. However, this growth trajectory masks varying exposures across market segments, margins, and long-term sustainability, necessitating a selective approach to current valuations.
Alliances: Strategic Repositioning and Growth Forecasts
Alliances Développement Immobilier is strategically repositioning towards the Mid-High and High-End segments, which offer the highest margins in the sector. Analysts anticipate a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.4% in revenue from 2025 to 2030, with projected revenues reaching approximately 6.5 billion dirhams by 2030.
The enhancement of their product mix is expected to yield an average gross margin of 31.6% during this period, the highest among listed developers. Additionally, the conclusion of investment in their hotel operations, estimated at around 3 billion dirhams by 2029, should gradually improve their return on capital employed (ROCE), projected at 15.8% by 2030.
Despite these strong fundamentals, the stock is currently trading at a 33% discount on the EV/EBITDA 2028 multiple compared to its peers, a situation deemed unjustified by analysts. Coverage is initiated with a buy recommendation, a target price of 685 dirhams (+37%), and an implied EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.6x for 2028, compared to the current 12.8x.
Residences Dar Saada: Growth Potential and Strategic Concerns
Residences Dar Saada is positioned as a primary beneficiary of the 'Cities Without Slums' initiative, with activity expected to ramp up in 2026, marked by the first deliveries of social projects. Analysts project the highest revenue CAGR in the sector for RDS at 50.1% from 2025 to 2030, with anticipated revenues of 3.4 billion dirhams by 2030.
However, this growth is largely dependent on the social/economic segment, which typically yields lower margins. The average gross margin is expected to be 22.6% from 2026 to 2030, the lowest in the sector. While ROCE is expected to improve, it remains limited at 7.1% by 2030.
Furthermore, analysts highlight a lack of long-term strategic visibility from the management, which limits potential market upside. The recommendation is to 'hold' with a target price of 170 dirhams (+13%) and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.3x for 2028.
Addoha: Multi-Segment Player Facing Valuation Pressures
Addoha is well-positioned to capitalize on the renewed interest in the real estate sector, supported by a substantial land bank, a diverse offering across multiple segments, and a strengthened presence in Africa. Analysts forecast a revenue CAGR of 19.2% from 2025 to 2030, accompanied by a gradual improvement in operational profitability.
However, the group remains heavily reliant on government programs, facing margin pressures with an average gross margin of 26.3% and a structurally high working capital requirement, which limits value creation. ROCE is not expected to exceed 8.1% by 2030, despite anticipated initial inventory reductions.
After a significant increase in share price, approximately 5.5 times since March 2023, the current valuation appears excessive. The stock is trading at a 51% premium on the EV/EBITDA 2028 multiple compared to its peers. Coverage is initiated with a sell recommendation, a target price of 25 dirhams (-18%), and an implied multiple of 18.8x.
