Global Monetary Trends Impacting the Dirham
The year 2026 is anticipated to witness continued monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve. A gradual decline in inflation in the United States, coupled with signs of fragility in the labor market, has already prompted the Fed to initiate a rate-cutting cycle at the end of 2025.
Market expectations now suggest a short-term pause in rate adjustments, followed by one or two additional cuts of 25 basis points throughout 2026. In contrast, the European Central Bank is adopting a more neutral stance, as inflation in the Eurozone hovers near the 2% target and economic outlooks remain broadly positive.
This reduced divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and Eurozone has led to upward revisions in EUR/USD forecasts, with market consensus placing parity around 1.18 in the first quarter of 2026, gradually rising to between 1.19 and 1.20 by year-end.
Domestic Monetary Stability Supporting the Dirham
On the domestic front, Bank Al-Maghrib's decision to maintain its key interest rate unchanged in December 2025 has enhanced the clarity of the monetary framework. This stability helps anchor expectations and mitigates speculative pressures on the dirham.
Furthermore, the gradual improvement in liquidity conditions within the foreign exchange market has been pivotal in the decline of the USD/MAD pair observed at the end of the year. In December, the dirham appreciated significantly against the dollar, driven by a combination of the dollar's international weakness and favorable market effects linked to reduced liquidity spreads.
Currency inflows, particularly those associated with continental sporting events and tourism, have also bolstered demand for the national currency. Analysts expect a gradual tightening of liquidity spreads at the beginning of 2026, which would limit the dirham's short-term movements.
Short-Term Exchange Rate Projections
In the near term, forecasts indicate a slight uptick in the USD/MAD pair compared to the levels seen at the end of 2025, influenced by technical adjustments and a potential consolidation of the dollar. Target levels are projected around 9.17 for one month, and 9.21 for two to three months.
Conversely, the EUR/MAD exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 10.77 and 10.82 over the same time frames, reflecting the euro's relative strength against the dollar.
Medium-Term Scenarios and Volatility Considerations
Looking ahead to the medium term, scenarios appear more balanced. Should the anticipated rise in EUR/USD materialize and liquidity spreads normalize—especially with the seasonal increase in export and tourism revenues—the USD/MAD pair could trend towards levels near 9.10 within six months, while the EUR/MAD rate stabilizes around 10.80.
Despite generally moderate volatility indicators for the dirham against major international currencies, uncertainty surrounding the precise timing of Fed decisions and developments in global financial markets necessitates caution.
Operators are thus encouraged to adopt hedging strategies for the short to medium term, particularly over one to three-month horizons. Ultimately, the outlook for the dirham in 2026 is framed within a scenario of relative stability, supported by a transparent domestic monetary environment and generally favorable external fundamentals.
While the primary risks remain tied to the performance of the U.S. dollar and liquidity conditions, no significant imbalances are currently anticipated for the national currency.
