Potential Production Increase
OPEC+ is evaluating the possibility of increasing oil production beginning in April 2026. This move could enable Saudi Arabia and other member nations, such as the United Arab Emirates, to reclaim market share at a time when countries like Russia, Venezuela, and Iran are grappling with Western sanctions.
Upcoming OPEC+ Meeting
A gathering of eight OPEC+ producers—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—is scheduled for March 1. These members had previously raised their production quotas by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December 2025, which accounts for about 3% of global demand.
However, they opted to freeze any further increases from January to March 2026 due to a seasonal decline in consumption. Sources within OPEC+ have indicated that there is a strong inclination among these eight members to resume quota increases starting in April.
Market Reactions
While no final decision has been made, discussions will continue in the weeks leading up to the March 1 meeting. The OPEC+ coalition, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, is responsible for producing nearly half of the world's oil.
In the markets, the anticipation of a potential production increase briefly impacted oil prices. Brent crude fell to a session low of $66.89 per barrel before recovering to $67.57 by 15:35 GMT, buoyed by the release of inflation figures in the United States.
Analyst Insights
Analysts note that OPEC's production intentions always attract significant attention, particularly when they are unexpected. The ongoing discussions and potential changes in production strategy will be closely monitored by market participants.
