Monetary Policy: According to AGR, a Majority of Investors Expect a Status Quo

In our latest survey conducted in September 2025, we gathered financial investors' expectations regarding the evolution of the BAM's interest rate ahead of its fourth and final monetary policy meeting scheduled for December 16, 2025. According to AGR's recent "Research Report - Strategy," the probability of maintaining the current interest rate stands at 73%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is at 27%. Furthermore, the probability of a 50 basis point reduction is reported to be zero. This survey was conducted among a sample of over 35 influential Moroccan and foreign investors in the Moroccan financial market. Specifically, local institutional investors assign a 70% probability to the scenario of keeping the interest rate unchanged, compared to 30% for a 25 basis point cut. Key market players give a 75% probability to the status quo scenario, with a 25% chance for a 25 basis point reduction. Foreign investors are nearly unanimous in their expectation of a status quo, with an 80% probability assigned to this scenario and 20% for a rate cut. Individual investors estimate a 71% probability of maintaining the current interest rate, against a 29% chance for a 25 basis point decrease.