Metals: Silver and Gold Confirm Their Safe-Haven Status, Copper Driven by Long-Term Fundamentals

Silver has emerged as the standout metal of 2025, surging over 4% on Friday to reach $74.80 per ounce. This marks the fifth consecutive day of gains and sets a new historical peak. This momentum reflects a broader trend fueled by the search for safe-haven assets amid ongoing geopolitical risks and a weakening U.S. dollar. In addition to its safe-haven appeal, silver is benefiting from expectations of further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The decline in real yields enhances the attractiveness of this non-yielding metal. Moreover, sustained inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and ongoing purchases by central banks are contributing to a tightening supply in the markets. Since the beginning of the year, silver prices have skyrocketed nearly 158%, indicating a massive repositioning by investors. Following silver's lead, gold is trading at historically high levels. The yellow metal reached $4,510 per ounce, briefly peaking at $4,530, its all-time record. Once again, the combination of a deteriorating geopolitical environment and more accommodative monetary outlook continues to support demand. Markets are now factoring in the possibility of two 25 basis point rate cuts in the U.S. in 2026, amid a gradually disinflating economy and a more balanced labor market. Since January, gold has appreciated over 70%, marking its strongest annual performance since 1979, largely driven by institutional purchases and consistent inflows into gold-backed index funds. In the industrial metals segment, copper is demonstrating resilience. Futures rose over 3% on Friday, reaching approximately $5.70 per pound in New York, their highest level in five months. The red metal is following a distinct trend from precious metals, primarily driven by long-term fundamentals. The energy transition, the development of electric vehicles, the expansion of electrical grids, and massive investments in AI-related infrastructure are sustaining structurally high demand. In New York, copper has seen a 42% annual increase. In China, prices rose 2.7% to $14,090 per ton, amid ongoing supply tensions and historically low processing costs. Beyond short-term movements, the current dynamics of metals reflect a deeper market sentiment: caution regarding the economic cycle, a search for protection against geopolitical risks, and a strategic repositioning towards tangible assets. In this context, gold and silver are effectively serving as barometers of financial stress, while copper remains a leading indicator of significant industrial transformations underway.