Global Economic Context
Advanced economies are projected to experience moderate growth, while emerging markets are expected to continue driving global momentum. A decline in commodity prices is anticipated to contribute to gradual disinflation, although global trade will remain hindered by ongoing geo-economic fragmentation.
Moroccan Economic Growth Forecast
Against this less favorable global backdrop, the HCP estimates that Morocco's economy will maintain a robust growth trajectory through 2025 and 2026.
GDP Growth Projections
According to the 2026 economic budget forecast, Morocco's GDP is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2025, accelerating to 5.0% in 2026. This marks a continuous upward trend over four consecutive years.
Agricultural Sector Recovery
This growth is largely attributed to a rebound in the primary sector, bolstered by a promising agricultural campaign for 2025/2026, following favorable rainfall starting in late November.
The agricultural value added is projected to increase by 4.5% in 2025 and by 10.4% in 2026, assuming above-average cereal production. Additionally, livestock activity is expected to recover in 2026, supported by improved vegetation cover, pasture availability, and a national livestock replenishment program.
Contribution of the Primary Sector
Under these conditions, the primary sector is anticipated to contribute 1.1 percentage points to growth in 2026, up from 0.4 points in 2025.
Non-Agricultural Sector Performance
Non-agricultural activities are expected to maintain strong momentum, with growth rates of 4.5% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, driven by industrial activity, robust construction performance, and the strength of the service sector.
Manufacturing is projected to stabilize at around 4% growth during 2025-2026, while the construction sector is expected to remain strong, supported by major infrastructure projects and investments related to housing and preparations for significant international events.
Resilience of the Tertiary Sector
The tertiary sector is set to confirm its resilience, with anticipated growth of 4.3% in 2026, following 4.5% in 2025, contributing over 2 percentage points to GDP growth.
Inflation and Domestic Demand
The HCP predicts controlled inflation, as measured by the implicit GDP index, at 1.9% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, which will support household consumption amid stable prices.
Domestic demand is expected to remain the primary driver of growth, fueled by final household consumption and dynamic gross investment, particularly supported by the Investment Charter and structural projects.
Trade Deficit Concerns
However, this vigor will likely lead to a sustained increase in imports, exacerbating external imbalances. The trade deficit is projected to widen to 21.3% of GDP in 2025, stabilizing at 21.1% in 2026, reflecting a faster growth in imports compared to exports, despite expected strong performance in phosphates and tourism services.
Budget Deficit Outlook
On the fiscal front, the HCP highlights the continued rise in ordinary revenues, driven by tax reforms initiated since 2021. Combined with a reduction in subsidy expenditures and nominal GDP growth, this trend is expected to reduce the budget deficit to 3.2% of GDP in 2026, down from 3.6% in 2025.
Public Debt Trajectory
In this context, total public debt is projected to continue its downward trajectory, decreasing from 78.9% of GDP in 2025 to 77.5% in 2026.
Conclusion
The HCP's scenario outlines a resilient Moroccan economy poised for acceleration, supported by agriculture and domestic demand, yet still facing persistent structural imbalances, particularly on the external front. The sustainability of this growth trajectory will depend on enhancing the role of exports as a genuine growth driver in the medium term.
