Positive Structural Dynamics in Moroccan Healthcare
Morocco's healthcare landscape is witnessing favorable structural changes, particularly with the unification of public and private health insurance systems. This initiative is aimed at achieving universal health coverage by 2030, thereby enhancing access to private healthcare services.
As a result, demand for services from Akdital's facilities has increased, supported by a significant expansion of its territorial network in recent years.
Challenges in Resource Availability
However, the availability of qualified medical personnel is beginning to impact the pace of new capacity openings. Consequently, Beltone has revised its growth projections for the number of beds from an anticipated 8,400 in 2030 to approximately 7,000.
Regional Investment Initiatives
Despite the moderation in domestic growth, Akdital is experiencing a marked acceleration in its international projects. The company has initiated a regional investment program valued at nearly $1.4 billion, primarily utilizing an 'asset-light' model through partnerships with local developers, particularly in Saudi Arabia.
Akdital is directly financing around $160 million of this initiative.
Strategic Acquisitions in Saudi Arabia
In Saudi Arabia, Akdital has already gained operational control of Al Mishari Hospital in Riyadh and is finalizing the acquisition of Al Bishri Hospital in Mecca, which is expected to commence operations in the first half of 2026.
Expansion Plans in the UAE and Africa
These assets form the foundation of Akdital's Middle East strategy, which includes plans to establish a regional headquarters in Riyadh. Concurrently, development is ongoing in the United Arab Emirates, with two facilities scheduled for completion by 2027, one of which is already under construction.
Additionally, Akdital is strengthening its African presence through the acquisition of the Taoufik hospital group in Tunisia for $90 million. This transaction, conducted at a cost per bed consistent with historical sector standards, is viewed positively by analysts.
Financial Outlook and Valuation
Financially, Beltone anticipates an average annual EBITDA growth of approximately 27% from 2025 to 2030. Margins are expected to remain stable despite the costs associated with ramping up new facilities.
A favorable revision of the effective tax rate, driven by the growth of operations in Gulf countries and a gradual normalization of taxation in Morocco, has led to a significant upward adjustment in net profit and earnings per share forecasts.
Currently, Akdital's shares are trading at 1,257 dirhams, reflecting an estimated EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.4 times for 2026, which is considered attractive given the company's growth and profitability profile.
Beltone identifies an implicit upside potential of nearly 49% towards the target price, although several risks remain, including a more pronounced slowdown in bed openings, pressure on operating costs, and a higher capital intensity than anticipated.