Bank Al-Maghrib's New Macroeconomic Projections for 2025 and 2026

At the national level, Bank Al-Maghrib's projections indicate an acceleration of economic growth from 3.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, with a consolidation to 4.4% in 2026. Agricultural value added is expected to rise by 5% this year, based on a cereal harvest of 41.3 million quintals (MQx), and by 3.2% in 2026, assuming a production of 50 MQx. For non-agricultural sectors, growth is anticipated to be around 4.5% in both 2025 and 2026, driven particularly by strong investment dynamics in infrastructure. Regarding inflation, it continues to evolve at moderate levels, with an average rate of 1.1% over the first eight months of 2025. According to Bank Al-Maghrib's projections, inflation is expected to be 1% this year, remaining stable compared to 2024, before accelerating to 1.9% in 2026. The underlying component of inflation is projected to decrease from 2.2% in 2024 to 1.1% in 2025, before rising to 2% in 2026. Inflation expectations remain well anchored, with financial sector experts anticipating average rates of 2.1% over an eight-quarter horizon and 2.2% over a twelve-quarter horizon in the third quarter of 2025. On the public finance front, budget execution as of the end of August 2025 shows a significant improvement of 14.5% in ordinary revenues, primarily driven by tax performance. In parallel, reflecting an increase in ordinary expenditures and investment, total expenditures have risen by 12.6%. Considering these results, data from the 2025 Finance Law, the 2025-2027 Triennial Budget Programming, additional credits opened by the Government last April, and the direction of the 2026 Finance Law project, Bank Al-Maghrib's projections indicate a stable budget deficit, excluding state divestment revenues, at 3.9% of GDP this year, decreasing to 3.4% in 2026.