Bank Al-Maghrib Raises Its Medium-Term Growth Projections

Bank Al-Maghrib's national projections indicate an acceleration of economic growth to 5% in 2025, followed by an average consolidation at 4.5% in 2026 and 2027. The agricultural value added is expected to increase by 5% in 2025, then by 4% in 2026, and by 2% in 2027, assuming a return to average cereal campaigns of 50 million quintals. Non-agricultural activities are projected to grow by 5% in 2025, followed by 4.8% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, driven particularly by investment dynamics. Regarding inflation, it averaged 0.8% over the first ten months of 2025. According to Bank Al-Maghrib's projections, inflation is expected to remain at 0.8% for the entire year of 2025, before accelerating to 1.3% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. The underlying component of inflation is projected to be 0.7% in both 2025 and 2026, before rising to 1.9% in 2027. In terms of inflation expectations, financial sector experts surveyed by Bank Al-Maghrib anticipate an average rate of 2% over an eight-quarter horizon and 2.2% over a twelve-quarter horizon by the fourth quarter of 2025. On the public finance front, taking into account budget execution, data from the 2026 Finance Law, and the 2026-2028 Triennial Budget Programming, Bank Al-Maghrib's projections indicate a continued budgetary consolidation. The budget deficit, excluding state asset sales, is expected to decrease from 3.9% of GDP in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025, and further to 3.4% in both 2026 and 2027.