Current Portfolio Overview
By the close of 2025, Aradei Capital is projected to manage 35 assets, encompassing a total Gross Leasable Area (GLA) of 506,000 square meters and a valuation exceeding 8 billion dirhams. The portfolio remains predominantly retail-focused, yet diversification is evident, with health care accounting for 18% of GLA, industrial assets at 7%, high street retail at 5%, and office spaces at 1%.
Geographically, the portfolio spans 23 cities, with 20% of the GLA concentrated in the Casablanca metropolitan area. A strategic project is identified in this region, targeting approximately 60,000 square meters of GLA.
Operational Performance Metrics
The operational metrics highlight an impressive occupancy rate of 97% and a collection rate of 97%, attracting around 45 million visits. The tenant concentration, a key focus for market observers, is managed effectively, with three strategic partners contributing nearly 60% of rental income, while the remainder of the portfolio is supported by a diverse base of over 300 tenants.
This balance is presented by the group as a factor enhancing visibility rather than indicating fragility.
Post-IPO Growth Trajectory
The recent Capital Markets Day (CMD) served as a platform to reflect on the post-IPO growth cycle, during which revenue surged from 271 million dirhams to 606 million dirhams. EBITDA rose from 214 million dirhams to 450 million dirhams, while the Group's Funds From Operations (FFO) increased from 132 million dirhams to 305 million dirhams.
Simultaneously, the financial structure has evolved, with the EPRA Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio climbing from 22% in 2020 to 33% in 2024. The average cost of debt stands at approximately 4.6%, with 82% of the debt being fixed or capped, a maturity exceeding six years, and financing split between 67% bank debt and 33% bonds.
Debt and Financial Ratios
Key financial ratios include a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.3 in 2020 and 5.6 in 2024, alongside an interest coverage ratio that improved from 2.3 to 3.0. These metrics establish a quantitative framework for assessing the next phase of growth in both asset expansion and leverage evolution.
Retail Strategy and Sector Diversification
Contrary to some perceptions, retail remains a vital component of Aradei's strategy. Shopping centers, constituting about 20% of the portfolio, maintain occupancy and collection rates near 90%. A targeted renovation and expansion program is underway for key locations such as Almazar and Borj Fez, with an investment of approximately 120 million dirhams aimed at enhancing rental productivity and enriching the commercial offering.
The remainder of the portfolio primarily consists of neighborhood assets, including Sela, galleries, and single-tenant properties, providing extensive territorial coverage and direct exposure to daily consumer spending.
Healthcare and Additional Revenue Streams
A significant focus of the CMD was on sector diversification, particularly in healthcare, which is supported by six operational clinics across various cities in the Kingdom. This segment is viewed as defensive and aligns with long-term partnerships with specialized operators.
Additionally, Aradei is exploring complementary revenue sources, including indoor leisure activities, events, and retail media. Although these activities currently represent a small fraction of revenue, they are projected to account for 12% to 15% of total revenue by 2030, thereby broadening the group's revenue profile.
Future Development Plans in Casablanca
Casablanca is positioned as the focal point of Aradei's future pipeline. Sela Park Casablanca, which opened at the end of 2025, is already experiencing advanced leasing activity. Furthermore, a large-scale mixed-use project that will integrate retail, office spaces, and event venues is slated for initial delivery in 2028, reflecting the group's ambition to enhance its offerings while adhering to a 'develop to hold' model.
2030 Growth Projections
Looking ahead to 2030, Aradei Capital aims for a portfolio valued at approximately 11.3 billion dirhams, up from over 8 billion dirhams in 2024/2025. Revenue is targeted to exceed 1 billion dirhams, compared to 606 million dirhams in 2024, and FFO is projected to approach 500 million dirhams, up from 305 million dirhams in 2024.
The management team has also set an EBITDA margin goal exceeding 70% and an annual payout ratio above 85%. The investment program leading up to 2030 is estimated at around 3.3 billion dirhams, divided between a secured program of approximately 1.8 billion dirhams and ongoing projects under evaluation totaling about 1.5 billion dirhams.
For projects currently in development, Aradei anticipates a yield on cost exceeding 11%. During discussions with investors, the Chairman emphasized the cautious nature of the underwriting process and encouraged a critical assessment of the projections, acknowledging the potential for overly optimistic estimates when incentives may lead to inflated operations.
The objectives outlined are based on conservative assumptions and do not currently factor in certain unsecured opportunities or options that may arise in the medium term.
