WTI Oil Seeks Recovery at the Dawn of 2026 Amid OPEC+ Discipline and Geopolitical Tensions

Market Overview

WTI oil is experiencing a technical rebound as the new year unfolds, following a tumultuous 2025 that recorded the steepest annual decline in five years. The market remains caught in a tug-of-war between supply outlooks, macroeconomic signals, and persistent geopolitical risks.

OPEC+ Discussions

Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ discussions, with a virtual meeting scheduled for January 4. Market consensus suggests that the group will maintain the agreement established in November, which includes a halt on further production increases. This decision comes amid a fragile global demand landscape and precarious market balances.

Geopolitical Pressures

Geopolitical factors continue to weigh heavily on market expectations. Recently, Washington intensified its pressure on the Venezuelan energy sector, targeting companies and vessels based in China and Hong Kong that are suspected of circumventing U.S. restrictions on crude oil exports. This initiative has reignited concerns regarding the available supply in the international market.

Escalating Tensions in Eastern Europe

Simultaneously, tensions between Russia and Ukraine have escalated during the New Year period. Reciprocal strikes have targeted port facilities in the Black Sea, causing damage to critical energy infrastructure, which adds another layer of risk to regional oil flows.

Fundamental Data Support

On the fundamentals front, recent data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has provided some support to the market. U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 1.934 million barrels last week, marking the largest weekly decline since mid-November and significantly exceeding consensus expectations, which had anticipated a decrease of approximately 0.9 million barrels.