The ECB Keeps Its Monetary Policy Unchanged

Inflation is currently near the medium-term target of 2%, and the overall outlook remains largely unchanged since June. New projections from the services anticipate an average overall inflation of 2.1% in 2025, followed by a slowdown to 1.7% in 2026, before slightly rising to 1.9% in 2027. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is expected to be 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027. Growth is projected to be 1.2% in 2025 (up from 0.9%), slowing to 1.0% in 2026, and then increasing to 1.3% in 2027. The Governing Council has reaffirmed its commitment to anchoring inflation at 2% in the medium term, emphasizing a cautious, meeting-by-meeting approach based on data. Future rate decisions will reflect inflation dynamics, risks, and the transmission of monetary policy, without any prior commitment to a defined trajectory.