Stock Market: Listed Companies' Profits Expected to Reach Historic High This Year

Analysts at BMCE Capital anticipate a 7.3% increase in overall revenue, reaching 299.5 billion dirhams in 2025. This improvement is expected to be widespread, driven by financial activities (+6.6%), industries (+7.3%), and insurance (+9.2%). Operating income is projected to rise by 14.7% to 84.3 billion dirhams, benefiting from the normalization of the sector, particularly following the resolution of the dispute between IAM and WANA (INWI). Excluding exceptional items related to this dispute, the group’s net profit (RNPG) is still expected to grow by 12.3%, reaching 39.9 billion dirhams. The research office highlights that the profit increase in 2025 relies primarily on three key sectors. Telecommunications, accounting for nearly 46% of the increase, will benefit from the final settlement of the IAM/INWI dispute and the reimbursement of 1.34 billion dirhams in the first half of the year. Banks, contributing 25.9%, will take advantage of a more accommodative monetary environment and effective risk cost management. Lastly, the construction sector will support growth due to a recovery in the construction market and strong cement demand. Conversely, the gas and petrochemical segments are expected to negatively impact performance due to margin erosion and rising financial costs. On a macroeconomic level, the report emphasizes several supportive factors. The continuation of the monetary easing initiated by Bank Al-Maghrib in March 2025 plays a crucial role by enhancing interest margins and market activities. Additionally, investment remains robust in key sectors, particularly through the dynamics of equipment loans. Controlled inflation and a gradual recovery in consumption are further amplified by public housing assistance programs and the upcoming CAN 2025 and World Cup 2030 events. However, BMCE Capital notes that tax audits and the superprofits tax could pose temporary challenges to the profitability of certain companies. In terms of stock market performance, the outlook remains favorable. The aggregated P/E ratio of the “Scope 40” (the universe monitored by BMCE Capital) is expected to remain stable at 21.3x in 2025, before declining to 19.8x in 2026 due to continued profit growth. The Casablanca market will thus maintain a valuation level below its five-year average, still offering potential for appreciation, especially after the recent correction of the MASI. The total dividend pool is projected to increase by 23.7% to 25.4 billion dirhams this year, driven by the anticipated rise in IAM's dividend. However, the average dividend yield is expected to slightly decrease to 2.9% due to the parallel rise in market capitalizations. Looking ahead to 2026, BMCE Capital Global Research forecasts a slowdown in growth pace but a continued upward trajectory: revenue is expected to reach 323.9 billion dirhams (+8.2%), operating income 91.3 billion (+8.3%), and RNPG 44.4 billion, an increase of 7.7%. These projections confirm that listed companies are entering a sustained phase of profit growth in a generally stabilized environment, supported by the consolidation of economic fundamentals, normalization of monetary conditions, and renewed investor confidence.