PLF 2026: Projected Budget Deficit at 3% of GDP

The 2026 budget plan (PLF 2026) indicates a projected budget deficit of 3% of GDP. This forecast considers ordinary revenue of 432.8 billion MAD and total expenditures, including autonomously managed state services and special treasury accounts, amounting to 488.2 billion MAD. Tax revenues are expected to reach 366.5 billion MAD, representing approximately 20.1% of GDP. These revenues will come from direct taxes (164.2 billion MAD), indirect taxes (159.7 billion MAD), customs duties (18.5 billion MAD), and registration and stamp duties (24 billion MAD). Non-tax revenues projected under PLF 2026 are estimated at 62.7 billion MAD, accounting for 14.5% of total ordinary revenues. These will primarily derive from contributions from public establishments and enterprises (EEP), estimated at 27.5 billion MAD, innovative financing mechanisms expected to generate 20 billion MAD in 2026, and state participation sales amounting to 6 billion MAD. The report specifies that total expenditures will represent 26.8% of GDP. This expenditure level reflects the continuation of investment programs related to major structural projects while incorporating budgetary efforts to strengthen the social state and implement government program objectives. Expenditures on goods and services are projected to be around 324 billion MAD in 2026, equating to 17.8% of GDP. The wage bill is expected to be 195.3 billion MAD (10.7% of GDP), marking a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the 2025 finance law forecasts. This change accounts for the cost of new budgetary positions, scale changes, promotions, and recent social dialogue provisions. Regarding expenditures on other goods and services, these are expected to reach 128.7 billion MAD in 2026, primarily due to increased transfers and subsidies aimed at supporting the financial capacities of social sectors, particularly education and health, and facilitating the implementation of ongoing structural reforms, including social protection. The debt interest burden is projected to be around 41.6 billion MAD in 2026, or 2.3% of GDP. This change reflects an overall decrease in debt service, mainly due to a 0.9% reduction in the interest burden of domestic debt and a 6.9% decline in external debt interest. In terms of compensation, the burden is expected to be 13.9 billion MAD, representing 0.8% of GDP. For investment expenditures, PLF 2026 plans for credits of 114.8 billion MAD, an increase of 8.8% compared to the 2025 finance law forecasts, representing 6.3% of GDP. This increase reflects the ongoing public investment effort aimed at implementing integrated development projects focused on reducing territorial and social inequalities. It also aligns with the acceleration of structural projects and support for sectoral strategies.