Economic Growth Forecast
Morocco's economy is projected to grow by 5% in 2026, bolstered by a resurgence in the agricultural sector and strengthened performance in non-agricultural activities. This growth is primarily fueled by a robust domestic demand within a stable price environment, as outlined in the Economic Budget Forecast for 2026.
Agricultural Sector Recovery
The 2025/2026 agricultural campaign commenced with significant rainfall deficits. However, abundant and well-distributed precipitation recorded from late November has mitigated these initial setbacks, suggesting a more promising agricultural season ahead.
Favorable climatic conditions are expected to replenish reservoir levels and recharge groundwater supplies. Additionally, livestock activities are anticipated to rebound in 2026, supported by the positive impacts of a royal decree to forgo the sacrifice during Eid Al-Adha in 2025, improved vegetation cover, and the availability of grazing lands, alongside a national program aimed at livestock replenishment.
Projected Agricultural Growth
The agricultural value added is expected to increase by 10.4% in 2026, following an estimated growth of 4.5% in 2025, contingent upon above-average cereal production.
Fishing Sector Outlook
The fishing sector is projected to experience a slight recovery in 2026 after a decline anticipated in 2025, attributed to a decrease in coastal and artisanal fishing landings.
Primary Sector Growth
In this context, the primary sector is expected to grow by 10% in 2026, following an estimated growth of 3.7% in 2025, contributing 1.1 percentage points to national economic growth in 2026, compared to 0.4 points in 2025.
Non-Agricultural Activities
Non-agricultural activities are projected to have grown by 4.5% in 2025 and are expected to increase by 4.3% in 2026. This growth will be primarily driven by the consolidation of industrial activities, continued strong performance in the construction sector, and robust demand for services.
Secondary Sector Contributions
The secondary sector is anticipated to show remarkable growth of 4.8% in 2025, with a projected increase of nearly 4.2% in 2026. Its contribution to national economic growth is expected to stabilize around 1.1 percentage points for both 2025 and 2026.
Tertiary Sector Resilience
The tertiary sector is expected to confirm its resilience with a growth rate of 4.3% in 2026, following a 4.5% increase in 2025. This sector is projected to contribute positively to GDP growth by 2.3 points in 2026, down from 2.4 points in 2025.
Trade and Hospitality Growth
The trade and repair sector, which accounted for 19.1% of tertiary value added on average from 2014 to 2024, is expected to grow by approximately 3.9% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, benefiting from strong national economic dynamics and robust domestic demand amid controlled inflation.
Following a significant recovery, the hospitality and restaurant sector is projected to continue its upward trend in 2025, with an estimated growth of nearly 9.7%. This expansion will be supported by increased tourist arrivals, strong travel receipts, and ongoing efforts to enhance Morocco's promotional strategies and accessibility.
Transport and Storage Services
In 2026, the positive momentum in the transport and storage services sector is expected to persist, with a projected growth of 5.3%, following a 4.1% increase in 2025. This growth will be bolstered by the continuous rise in passenger and freight traffic, expansion of airport and port capacities, and improvements in logistics services.
Non-Market Services Growth
Non-market services are anticipated to maintain positive growth of 4.9% in 2025, driven by an increase in payroll, before moderating to 4.3% in 2026.
GDP Growth and Inflation Projections
In terms of value, GDP growth is expected to decrease from 6.7% in 2025 to 6.3% in 2026, resulting in an inflation rate, as measured by the implicit GDP deflator, of 1.3% in 2026, down from an anticipated 1.9% in 2025.
