Morocco: Slight Decrease in Household Confidence in the Third Quarter of 2025, According to HCP

The High Commission for Planning (HCP) reports that the Household Confidence Index (HCI) stood at 53.6 points in the third quarter of 2025, down from 54.6 points in the previous quarter and 46.2 points a year earlier. In terms of living conditions, pessimism remains prevalent. Nearly 78% of households believe that their standard of living has deteriorated over the past 12 months, while only 5% perceive an improvement. The opinion balance for this indicator is at –72.9 points, a decline from –69.2 points in the previous quarter. Looking ahead, more than half of households (51.4%) anticipate further deterioration in their standard of living, reflecting a cautious outlook amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Regarding employment, there is a slight easing of pessimism. While 70.5% of households still expect an increase in unemployment, 14.1% now foresee a decrease. The opinion balance has improved to –56.4 points, compared to –57.5 points in the previous quarter and –76.3 points a year ago, indicating a significant improvement over the past year. When it comes to durable goods, the HCP notes that 69.4% of households believe that it is not a favorable time to purchase such items. However, the opinion balance has improved to –57.7 points, up from –62.8 points in the previous quarter and –69.7 points a year earlier. This slight recovery reflects a relative improvement in consumer sentiment, though it does not signify a true rebound in domestic demand. In terms of financial situations, there are timid signs of improvement. In the third quarter, 59% of households reported that their income covers their expenses, while 38.7% rely on debt or savings, and only 2.3% manage to save. The opinion balance regarding the current financial situation has slightly improved to –36.4 points from –38.8 points in the previous quarter. However, past and future perceptions remain negative: 50.6% of households noted a deterioration over the last 12 months, and only 14.3% expect an improvement in the next 12 months. Households continue to express significant pessimism regarding their saving capacity, with 90.4% believing they will not be able to save in the coming year. The opinion balance stands at –80.8 points, nearly stable compared to the previous quarter. Regarding food prices, 95.7% of households reported an increase over the past 12 months, and 81.8% anticipate further increases. The opinion balance, at –81.4 points, remains extremely unfavorable, indicating a widespread perception of persistent inflation on essential goods. Methodology: The Household Confidence Index is calculated based on seven indicators related to the general and financial situation of households, including perceptions of living standards, unemployment, purchasing opportunities, and past, present, and future financial situations. The index is expressed on a scale from 0 to 200 and reflects the simple arithmetic average of opinion balances increased by 100.