2025: A Landmark Year for the MASI
The year 2025 will be remembered as a standout period for the Moroccan All Shares Index (MASI), which surged by 27.57%, marking one of its best historical performances. The market capitalization surpassed the significant milestone of 1 trillion dirhams, driven by a favorable macroeconomic environment, robust corporate earnings, and increased participation from retail investors.
A Shift in Market Dynamics for 2026
As we look towards 2026, a new perspective is necessary. The market is now navigating a FANI environment—Fragile, Anxious, Non-linear, and Incomprehensible—characterized by heightened global imbalances, uncertainty regarding international macro-financial trajectories, and unpredictable economic cycles.
In this context, stock performance is expected to increasingly reflect companies' ability to generate real value rather than merely expanding multiples. Short-term profit-taking may occur around February and March, coinciding with the release of annual results for 2025 amidst elevated valuation levels in certain segments.
Positive Macroeconomic Foundations
From a macroeconomic standpoint, growth in Morocco is anticipated to continue. Following an estimated growth rate of 5.0% in 2025, the economy is projected to expand by 4.5% in 2026, primarily driven by domestic demand.
Inflation is expected to remain contained at around 1.3%, following an estimated 0.8% in 2025, indicating a stable pricing environment. This trajectory is supported by several clearly identified internal drivers:
- Ongoing public and private investments, particularly in infrastructure related to the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations and the 2030 World Cup.
- A rebound in agricultural value added, bolstered by exceptional rainfall and a cereal campaign that could, in an optimistic scenario, exceed 100 million quintals.
- Strong performance in the tourism sector, which recorded 19.8 million arrivals by the end of December 2025, contributing to service sector dynamics and growth resilience.
Sustainable Profitability Growth Ahead
After an exceptional increase in profitability capacity of 30.8% in 2025, a more moderate yet positive growth rate of 7.7% is anticipated for listed companies in 2026. This slowdown reflects a return to a more normalized trajectory following a rapid recovery cycle.
In this environment, value creation in the stock market will increasingly depend on operational execution, financial discipline, and companies' ability to maintain margins amid tighter international conditions.
A Favorable Financial Framework for Equities
On the monetary and financial front, the current environment remains relatively accommodative. Bank Al-Maghrib maintained its monetary policy stance during its last meeting in December, while the bond market is moving towards rate consolidation.
The narrowing gap between equity yields and bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield and the 2025 dividend yield reduced to just 7 basis points, enhances the clarity of asset allocation decisions.
Additionally, the increasing participation of individual investors, whose share of trading volumes reached 30% in Q3 2025, continues to support market liquidity.
Key Catalysts for the Stock Market in 2026
Several structural catalysts are identified that could influence the trajectory of the stock market in 2026:
- An upgrade of Morocco's sovereign credit rating to Investment Grade, from BB+/B to BBB-/A-3, which enhances investor confidence and the attractiveness of Moroccan assets.
- Continued investment momentum driven by major infrastructure projects and robust domestic demand.
- Ongoing increases in the prices of precious and base metals, benefiting mining stocks amid persistent geopolitical tensions.
- A revitalized capital market, supported by recent and upcoming activities such as IPOs and capital increases, enhancing market depth.
However, these positive factors coexist with identified risks, including ongoing tensions in international trade, the effects of protectionism, and the potential for imported inflation, which could impact certain industrial margins.
Conclusion: A New Phase for the Moroccan Stock Market
Ultimately, a simple mechanical extension of the gains observed from 2023 to 2025 is not anticipated for 2026. The Moroccan stock market is entering a maturity phase where performance is expected to be more selective, differentiated, and closely aligned with economic and earnings fundamentals.