Listed Banks: M.S.IN Updates Its Recommendations on Attijariwafa Bank and BCP

M.S.IN has maintained a "Hold" recommendation for Attijariwafa Bank. The stock is currently trading around 760 dirhams, with a target price set at 823 dirhams, indicating a limited upside potential of 8.3%. The central scenario anticipates continued growth in net banking income and net profit attributable to the group, with respective compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 6.73% and 6.69% for the period from 2025 to 2030. This growth is expected to be driven by an increase in loan volumes linked to public investment in infrastructure and strong market activity, supported by monetary easing and a vibrant foreign exchange market. Additionally, the bank demonstrates robust operational control, with an expected cost-to-income ratio around 36.5% during the projection period, bolstered by the expansion of digital channels. The cost of risk is also anticipated to gradually improve in a more favorable macroeconomic environment. On the stock market front, the bank shows a projected price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 14.9 for 2025 and an estimated dividend yield of 2.5%. M.S.IN expects a gradually increasing distribution policy, with an average projected dividend of 24 dirhams per share between 2025 and 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 8.8%. In contrast, the recommendation for Banque Centrale Populaire (BCP) has been upgraded to "Buy." The stock, trading around 290 dirhams, has a target price of 355 dirhams, corresponding to an upside of 22.5%. The research office forecasts an annualized growth of consolidated net banking income of 7% and a net profit attributable to the group (RNPG) growth of 6% for the period from 2025 to 2030. This scenario is based on a recovery in credit demand, an increasing contribution from market activities—boosted by falling rates and strong stock market performance—and a gradual normalization of the cost of risk. BCP also presents an attractive distribution profile, with an average expected dividend per share of 15.08 dirhams during the projection period, translating to a CAGR of 9.5%, and a structurally higher payout ratio compared to its peers. The dividend yield is projected at 4.0% for 2025, with a PER of 12.6 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.36. Operationally, analysts highlight the expected contribution from participatory finance through the Al Yousr subsidiary, as well as the group's ability to manage its expenses, with a projected cost-to-income ratio around 45% by 2030. Overall, M.S.IN's note reflects a more constructive outlook for the listed banking sector. The combination of a clearer macroeconomic environment, gradual monetary easing, and improved asset quality provides visibility for profit trajectories. In this context, Attijariwafa Bank retains its status as a core portfolio holding, while BCP emerges as the main lever for medium-term revaluation within the banking sector.