Growth Forecasts for 2026
Mohammed Tarik Bchir, a key figure in the Treasury, has indicated that the 2026 Finance Law projects a growth rate of 4.6%. However, he noted that recent developments in the water campaign could lead to a higher growth trajectory.
"Economic growth for 2026 is expected to exceed 5%. We may even approach 6%," he stated, highlighting that reservoir levels have surpassed 70%.
Resilience Amid Drought
Bchir also reflected on the national economy's performance in 2025, where growth was estimated to be around 5% despite experiencing a seventh consecutive year of drought.
He attributed this positive outcome to a longstanding dynamic and a gradual expansion of economic drivers.
Transition to Economic Activation
According to Bchir, Morocco has moved beyond mere economic resilience and is entering a phase of economic activation, a sentiment that underscores the perceived strength of macro-financial fundamentals.
Shifts in Export Profile
The Treasury director emphasized the transformation of Morocco's export profile, noting that industrial exports are projected to account for nearly 76% of the total in 2025, amounting to approximately 350 billion dirhams.
This shift reflects a sustainable transition towards manufacturing sectors, with the industrial sector contributing around 15% to the GDP.
Automotive Sector Leadership
Among the key sectors, the automotive industry remains a standout performer. Bchir reiterated Morocco's status as Africa's export champion in this field, with foreign sales nearing 155 billion dirhams for the 2024-2025 period.
Public Finance Management
On the fiscal front, Bchir reported a controlled budget deficit of approximately 3.5% of GDP for 2025. The Treasury's debt ratio is projected at 67.2% of GDP, with a downward trajectory aiming for 62.4%.
He also noted that inflation remains below 5%, supported by a credible monetary policy and prudent fiscal management.
Role of Capital Markets
Linking these indicators to the event's purpose, Bchir advocated for the role of capital markets in financing growth. He emphasized that the ability to guide companies towards the market relies on a robust, stable, and credible macroeconomic environment.
Finally, he called for a more professional and responsible financial market, asserting that trust is a crucial factor for expanding the base of issuers and investors.