Political Landscape Influences Financial Markets
CIH Capital Management reports that 2025 marked a significant return of political factors as key drivers in financial markets. In the United States, the implementation of post-election policies has bolstered domestic investment while fostering a protectionist stance.
In Europe, economic growth remains sluggish and uneven, constrained by budgetary limitations and the absence of a coordinated stimulus plan. As a result, the asset management firm notes that markets are now pricing in a persistent political risk premium, affecting both valuations and investment strategies.
Positive Economic Outlook for Morocco
On the national front, CIH Capital Management estimates that Morocco's economy experienced a growth rate of 4.5% in 2025, driven by strong domestic demand, public and private investment, and controlled inflation.
Tourism has been a significant contributor to this growth, with the hosting of the Africa Cup of Nations in 2025 further stimulating economic activity and infrastructure investments.
Looking ahead to 2026, the macroeconomic outlook appears favorable, with growth expected to be supported by investment and a rebound in the agricultural sector, alongside contained inflation and a slight reduction in the budget deficit, projected at around 3% of GDP.
Additionally, a potential reduction in the benchmark interest rate is anticipated in the middle of the year, followed by a period of stability.
Equity Market: Emphasis on Value Segment
Following a consolidation phase in the fourth quarter of 2025, CIH Capital Management expects a resurgence in equity market dynamics, supported by anticipated increases in profit margins and active financial operations.
In this context, the firm believes that the value segment will benefit from positive cash flows, concerns over overvaluation, and a decrease in risk aversion.
Conversely, the growth segment's potential is viewed as more limited, as much of the optimistic outlook has already been factored into current stock prices following the market's significant upswing.
Quality stocks are assessed based on their robustness and resilience in an environment characterized by high valuation levels.
Bond Market: Adjustments Dependent on Rate Movements
In the bond market, the asset manager emphasizes that the balance of the yield curve is contingent upon the market's ability to meet the financing needs of the Treasury and private issuers.
The last quarter of 2025 revealed certain tensions, particularly in medium- to long-term maturities.
In this environment, CIH Capital Management notes that private credit offers an attractive risk-return profile, with manageable credit risk.
The issue of duration remains linked to public finance developments and the potential interest rate cut expected in the latter half of the year.
International Allocation: Selective 'Risk On' Approach
At the start of the year, CIH Capital Management indicates a preference for an international allocation that leans towards a 'risk on' strategy, with heightened sensitivity to the performance of private issuers.
These assets are perceived to have lower exposure to sovereign risk in a politically driven environment.
However, the firm stresses the importance of selectivity due to observed valuation levels in certain markets and ongoing risks in Europe.