Earnings Forecast for 2026
CFG Bank anticipates a 5.8% growth in total earnings for 2026. When excluding exceptional items, the adjusted earnings are projected to increase by 9.1%, reaching 50.8 billion dirhams.
Key sectors driving this growth include banking, mining, materials and public works, real estate, and healthcare. In contrast, the energy and telecommunications sectors are expected to contribute more modestly.
Market Valuation Insights
The bank's analysis reflects a historical differential between earnings yield (E/P) and the risk-free rate. By applying the average spread observed from 2014 to 2024 to the current ten-year sovereign rate, CFG estimates a theoretical price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 20.2x, closely aligning with the projected 2026 P/E ratio of 20.6x.
This marginal difference leads CFG to conclude that the market is generally valued fairly, supporting its consolidation scenario for 2026. However, the bank notes significant sectoral disparities.
Certain heavyweight stocks, representing around 22% of market capitalization, such as Marsa Maroc, Taqa Morocco, and Managem, are trading at levels exceeding 40x 2026 earnings. Meanwhile, banks, which CFG views as the primary growth drivers for earnings in 2026, are typically trading below 15x, indicating valuations lower than the market's theoretical P/E.
Adjusted Valuation and Growth Potential
To assess the intrinsic potential of the market, CFG analysts adjust for overvalued segments by excluding stocks with a 2026 P/E exceeding 40x. After this adjustment and considering the structural weight of the banking sector, the bank arrives at an adjusted theoretical P/E of 18.4x, suggesting a residual growth potential of approximately 8% for a representative portfolio, stripped of extremes.
CFG emphasizes that stock selection will be crucial for market performance in 2026, stating, 'Based on our theoretical P/E estimates, the market is currently trading close to its equilibrium level. After adjusting for high valuation multiples (P/E > 40x), the market is expected to grow by around 8%, all else being equal.'
Recommended Stocks for 2026
In this context, CFG Bank highlights eight stocks deemed well-positioned to capture medium-term earnings growth (24 to 36 months).
For Mutandis, the target price is set at 365 dirhams, indicating a potential upside of 50.8%. The stock trades at 14.1x 2026 earnings and 12.4x 2027 earnings. CFG forecasts an 11.6% CAGR for net income from 2024 to 2028, driven by increased production at Aïn Ifrane, improved margins from Dakhla hydrolysates, and expanded export opportunities.
The group's distribution capacity is also highlighted, with an estimated dividend yield of 4.3% in 2026.
For Akdital, CFG sets a target price of 1,702 dirhams, reflecting a potential increase of 47.6%. The company is valued at 29.2x 2026 earnings, a multiple expected to normalize to 20.2x in 2027 and 15.7x in 2028. CFG projects a 31.1% CAGR for net income from 2024 to 2030, supported by the ongoing expansion of its hospital network in Morocco, aiming for 62 clinics and 6,400 beds by 2027, along with the initiation of its internationalization strategy in the MENA region.
For HPS, the target price is set at 759 dirhams, representing a potential upside of 44.2%. The stock is valued at 26x 2026 earnings and 18x 2027 earnings. CFG anticipates a significant acceleration in results, with a 33.4% CAGR for net income from 2024 to 2030, driven by the growth of the SaaS model, economies of scale, and synergies related to CR2. The bank notes high visibility, evidenced by a record backlog of 1.7 billion dirhams as of Q3 2025.
Regarding Crédit du Maroc, the target price is set at 1,299 dirhams, indicating a potential increase of 24.9%. The stock trades at 12.1x 2026 earnings and 11.1x 2027 earnings. CFG expects steady earnings growth with an 11% CAGR from 2024 to 2028, supported by the implementation of the 'CDM Boost 2028' strategy, operational efficiency improvements, and gradual normalization of risk costs.
For Aradei Capital, CFG recommends a target price of 558 dirhams, suggesting a potential rise of 24.3%. The stock is trading at 16.4x 2026 FFO and 15.7x 2027 FFO. The bank anticipates an 8.5% CAGR for FFO from 2024 to 2030, supported by the gradual expansion of its asset portfolio. The distribution policy remains a strong point, with an estimated dividend yield of 5.1% in 2026, while the 3.3 billion dirham investment program through 2030 is conservatively integrated into the assumptions.
For CIH Bank, the target price is set at 495 dirhams, indicating a potential increase of 24.1%. The stock trades at 12.4x 2026 earnings and 11.7x 2027 earnings. CFG forecasts a 9.8% CAGR for net income from 2024 to 2028, driven by the growth of the digital banking model, diversification of the credit portfolio, and gradual improvement of fundamentals.
Finally, for Attijariwafa Bank, CFG sets a target price of 865 dirhams, suggesting a potential increase of 17.7%. The stock is valued at 14.2x 2026 earnings and 13.5x 2027 earnings. The bank anticipates moderate but steady growth, with a 7% CAGR for net income from 2024 to 2028, relying on the strength of the group's model and its central role in financing domestic investment.
Conclusion
In conclusion, CFG Bank's strategists believe that market growth in 2026 will primarily depend on the actual growth of earnings within a landscape of normalized valuations.
