Casablanca Stock Exchange: Slight Decrease in Investor Confidence in October

The decline in the overall index is mainly attributed to a shift in perception among foreign investors, whose index has dropped significantly by 17.9 points to 47.5 points, moving from a phase of "assurance" to one of "wait-and-see." In contrast, local investors, who represent nearly 89% of the market, show marked resilience: - Institutional and mutual funds: 61.5 points, nearly stable; - Key players: 67.2 points, an increase of 3.5 points; - Individual investors: 68.4 points, up 4.3 points over the quarter. This contrast illustrates a market where local participants maintain their confidence despite more uncertain international conditions. According to a survey conducted by AGR, 57% of investors anticipate an increase in the MASI over the next three months, down from 74% in the previous survey. Expectations regarding trading volumes have also adjusted downward, with 38% of participants predicting an improvement, compared to 62% previously. Long-term investment prospects show increased caution, as only 29% of investors plan to increase their exposure to the stock market, down from 59% in the previous quarter. However, expectations for the quality of annual results in 2025 remain high, with 63% of respondents anticipating "good quality" publications, reflecting a structural confidence in the market's fundamentals. The survey also highlights a decrease in geopolitical fears, with only 40% of investors believing that the global situation will negatively impact the stock market, down from 62% previously. Meanwhile, 80% of investors express being "confident or very confident" about the national economic climate over the next three months. However, the political and social context appears more concerning, with 43% of respondents believing it could adversely affect the market, compared to just 6% in the previous quarter. This duality reflects a structurally solid but psychologically sensitive Moroccan market, where investors remain attentive to internal stability. Over the past two years, the AGR ICIB Index has fluctuated within a stable assurance zone (50-75 points), accompanying the appreciation of the MASI, which rose from 9,200 points in 2022 to over 18,500 points by the end of 2025. This maintenance within a positive zone underscores the growing maturity of the Moroccan market, where risk perception remains controlled despite cyclical fluctuations. According to Attijari Global Research, this index, developed from a panel of 35 representative investors (institutional, individual, key players, and foreign), serves as a key psychological thermometer of market sentiment. It highlights the behavioral and emotional dimensions of the Casablanca Stock Exchange, beyond mere financial fundamentals. The retreat of foreign investors contrasts with the resilience of local players, while expectations for the MASI remain positive. Thus, the Moroccan market retains an assurance profile, supported by economic stability, monetary visibility, and institutional confidence, confirming the structural resilience of the Casablanca Stock Exchange as it approaches 2026.