Casablanca Stock Exchange: Risk Premium Increases by 30 Basis Points in October 2025

The increase in the risk premium is attributed to a decrease in the average yield of 10-year treasury bonds, which fell from 3.24% in November 2024 to 2.81% in October 2025, according to AGR's "Research Report - Strategy" for October 2025. Additionally, there has been a relative stability in investors' return requirements for equities, hovering around 9.5%, as noted in the same report. Historically, the risk premium recorded a decline of 0.4 percentage points, settling at 4.5% in October 2025. This adjustment is primarily due to the downward revision of the average yield of the MASI index over a 20-year horizon, which decreased from 10.8% to 10.5%. In contrast, the prospective risk premium stands at 6.6% in October 2025, reflecting an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to November 2024. This figure takes into account the revision of the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of listed companies' profits to +10% for the period 2025-2027. In the long term, AGR experts project a normative CAGR of +4%, as indicated in the report.