Casablanca Stock Exchange: Four Catalysts for the Upcoming Season

The upcoming Council meeting of Bank Al-Maghrib, scheduled for two weeks from now, is the focus of attention. Following a status quo in June and a confident speech, markets are now questioning the timing and extent of the next monetary easing. September or December could see a reduction in the key interest rate. With inflation falling below target and expectations dropping below 1% by the end of the year, arguments for a more accommodative monetary policy are accumulating. Simultaneously, the bond market, which remained calm over the summer, will begin to factor in the Treasury's financing needs for 2026. As public spending is expected to rise, BAM may seek to alleviate pressure on sovereign rates by loosening monetary constraints. For equity investors, a reduction in the key interest rate would provide welcome support to valuations, which have become stretched in certain sectors. The upcoming semi-annual results will be a critical test for margins. After a generally consistent quarterly earnings season, the focus will shift to semi-annual results. Experienced investors will move beyond simply analyzing revenue figures to concentrate on margins, which are crucial for assessing companies' ability to maintain profitability. This shift in focus is likely to increase volatility and trading volumes. Companies demonstrating operational resilience will emerge stronger, while those that disappoint, particularly if their valuations are high, may face swift market penalties. The primary market remains vibrant, with several IPOs in the pipeline. Some are well-known, while others are more discreet. However, one thing is clear: since the 2008 crisis, the pipeline has never been as rich. This activity sustains the interest of retail investors, who have become a key driver of market depth and momentum in recent months. Each successful IPO contributes to broadening the investor base and enhancing liquidity. The introduction of new financial instruments represents a significant structural development. The reform of the mutual fund law, currently being adopted in the second chamber, paves the way for ETFs, simplified rule funds, participatory funds, and currency funds. Additionally, the futures market, which validated its first equity product (Future on the MASI.20) in May, is finally expected to launch. These tools will enable investors to hedge their positions, diversify their strategies, and, importantly, bring more liquidity to the market. The imminent launch of these products is eagerly anticipated by the entire financial community.