Strong Profit Growth Forecast
AGR has projected a robust profit growth of 17.8% for the AGR-30 index in 2024, aligning with market expectations. The profit growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to 12.4%, up from an initial estimate of 9.5%, and is expected to reach 10.2% in 2026.
This positive trajectory reflects the sustained upward trend in the earnings of listed companies. Notably, profit growth is anticipated to outpace revenue growth during the 2024-2026 period, driven by margin improvements.
Revenue Growth Projections
Revenue growth for the AGR-30 index is estimated at 7.9% in 2024, followed by 8.2% in 2025, and 7.8% in 2026. AGR emphasizes that the dynamics of profit growth are becoming more balanced across sectors.
Shifting Sector Contributions
The banking sector's contribution to profit growth is projected to decline from 74% in 2024 to 46% during the 2025-2026 period. This shift is attributed to a slowdown in bank growth rates and the rising influence of other sectors, including Mining, Cement, Construction, Ports, and Healthcare.
Mining Sector's Exceptional Profit Outlook
The mining sector is anticipated to generate extraordinary profits in 2026, bolstered by increasing metal prices. The sector's profits are expected to exhibit an average annual growth rate of 55% from 2024 to 2026, rising from 0.8 billion MAD to 1.9 billion MAD.
Valuation Improvements Expected
With the sustainability of profit growth, the recurring P/E ratio for the AGR-30 index is projected to improve by 2.1 points, decreasing from 22.4x to 20.3x by 2026. However, the report highlights significant disparities in valuations across sectors, with banks at 13.0x, telecommunications at 15.6x, and other listed sectors at 32.7x.
